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The ECE sector has delivered an unexpected bright spot in an otherwise difficult year for New Zealand businesses, recording its lowest number of service closures in recent years.

The figures come after warnings from some provider groups and lobbyists that the 0.5% funding increase announced in Budget 2025 would fall far short of rising costs and lead to widespread closures. In October 2025, claims circulated that as many as 400 centres could shut within a year. However, The Post recently reported comments from Associate Education Minister David Seymour noting that this was not the first time he had been warned of “real doom and gloom,” and that such predictions “have not come true in the past.” The latest data appears to support that view.

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This stability stands in stark contrast to the wider economy. Across the country, 2025 recorded the highest number of business closures in more than a decade, with many sectors hit hard by rising costs and tightening margins. Despite these pressures, the ECE sector remained comparatively insulated.